Germany vs France Prediction and Preview – 07/07/16

Euro 2016 semi-final preview – Germany vs France prediction.

Mat Hummels is forced to sit out Germany’s attempt to reach their seventh European Championships final, thanks to his booking in the world champions’ penalty shootout win over Italy in the last round. Mario Gomez has been ruled out for the rest of Euro 2016 through injury, while Bastian Schweinsteiger and Sami Khedira have picked up knocks and are both major doubts to feature.

Hosts France could welcome back both Adil Rami and N’Golo Kante – after the pair were both suspended for Les Bleus’ emphatic 5-2 victory over surprise package Iceland in the quarter-finals. Due to the margin of victory in the last round, Arsenal pair Laurent Koscielny and Olivier Giroud – who are both one booking away from a ban – were able to be subbed off early against Iceland and ensure that they are able to feature against the Germans in the last-four.

Possible Line-ups

Germany 4-2-3-1 formation: Neuer, Kimmich, Boateng, Howedes, Hector, Can, Kroos, Draxler, Ozil, Gotze, Muller.

France 4-3-2-1 formation: Lloris, Sagna, Rami, Koscielny, Evra, Matuidi, Kante, Pogba, Griezmann, Payet, Giroud.

Statistics

• Germany have won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches
• France have won 8, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches
• Over the course of their previous 10 matches, Germany have scored an average of 1.6 goals and conceded an average of 1 goal per game
• Over the course of their previous 10 matches, France have scored an average of 2.4 goals and conceded an average of 1.2 goals per game
• There have been over 2.5 goals scored in 4 of Germany’s previous 10 matches
• There have been over 2.5 goals scored in 7 of France’s previous 10 matches

Prediction

It took until Leonardo Bonucci’s 78th-minute equaliser from the penalty spot for Germany to concede their first goal of Euro 2016, so Joachim Low’s side will be confident of knocking out the host nation in the European Championships for an unprecedented fifth time – after seeing off Belgium in 1972, Yugoslavia in 1976, Sweden in 1992 and England in 1996. The three-time winners of this competition also have the advantage in the head-to-head at major tournaments with France, with two wins and a draw – which Germany then won 5-4 on penalties in the 1982 World Cup finals – since the French claimed their only victory back in 1958, winning 6-3 in a third-place playoff.

It’s not all bad news for Didier Deschamp’s men though – as France have won 12 of the two sides’ 27 meetings overall, compared to Germany’s nine. They can also take heart from the fact that they saw off the World Cup holders 2-0 in a friendly back in November 2015, a match that was sadly overshadowed by the tragic events in Paris and Saint-Denis that night.

Germany have certainly had the more testing passage to this semi-final, which may be the reason why we are yet to see them return to the level of performance they produced in Brazil two years ago. Furthermore, the absence of Gomez is sure to hurt Germany, with him scoring twice already in the tournament, so it will be left to those left in the German front-line to stand up and be counted.

In contrast, France have found the net with ease so far this tournament – with Antoine Griezmann’s four goals and Giroud and Dimitri Payet’s three goals each putting them at the top of the Euro 2016 goalscoring charts prior to the semi-finals – but it will be interesting to see how they fare against one of the world’s best goalkeepers in Manuel Neuer.

The bookies have made both France and Germany joint favourites to progress to the final, which just goes to show that it is almost impossible to predict the winner of this second semi-final of Euro 2016.

Tips

Draw at 21/10 with Ladbrokes

Germany to keep a clean sheet at 19/10 with Coral

France to keep a clean sheet at 9/5 with Boylesports

Correct Score 0-0 at 13/2 with BetVictor

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